【编者按：老阎的三十九定律是其哲学体系的基础，精确揭示了人性与其行为逻辑、政治制度、社会发展、人类文明发展运行的客观规律。为我们提供了深度理解历史运行逻辑和预测人类社会未来变迁的法则。

本文总结归纳了运用老阎第一定律定律来分析历史、预测未来。

文章编辑及撰写：大智若愚33

注：本文内容均为老阎原话。

Editor’s Note: Runtao Yan’s Thirty-Nine Laws are the foundation of his philosophical system, which accurately describe the human nature and their behavioral logic, political system, social development, and the operation and trend of human civilization. These laws predict the future direction of human society.

The article describe historical events and predict the future of civilization based on Runtao Yan’s First Law.

Editor and Writer: Dazhiruoyu33】

生命在于忽悠 Life lives in swinging. 宇宙是生命现象，润涛阎第一定律“生命在于忽悠”不仅符合世间所有的生命现象，也符合宇宙本身。

The universe is a phenomenon of life. The first law of Runtao Yan, “Life lives in swinging.” applies not only to all life in the world, but also to the universe itself.

I. 生命在于忽悠 – 自然科学 Life lives in swinging – Natural Science

宇宙：

如果宇宙永远扩散下去，宇宙将消逝在茫茫黑暗之中。宇宙的生命也就完结了。如果宇宙只有收缩，没有扩散，最后的结局依然是死亡。

Universe: If the universe expands forever, the universe would disappear into the vast darkness and end in death. If the universe only contracts without expanding, the end will still be death. The universe lives by swinging from expansion to contraction.

水果产量大小年：

水果在天然情况下有大小年的现象，因为一些微量元素从土壤石块里分解出来的速度很慢，根系还要往远处扎才能获得足够的养分，导致今年水果大丰收了，下一年就没有足够的微量元素养分了，也就发生落果现象而导致小年。这就是自然界生态平衡往往是来回忽悠的现象。

Fruit crop yields swing: Yields naturally vary from year to year because some trace elements in soil rocks break down very slowly. Roots have to go deep to get enough nutrients. If there is a bumper crop this year due to overuse of nutrients, there will not be enough nutrients left next year, resulting in a smaller crop. The law of “Life lives in swinging” applies to the ecological system.

II. 生命在于忽悠 – 社会科学 Life lives in swinging – Social Science

社会稳定之法宝-左右派轮流坐庄 ：

社会是一种生命现象，它必然需要左右忽悠。也就是：30年河东，30年河西。左派30年太久了，就该右派上台了。在西方所建立的民主制度，其核心就是要从制度上保证左右来回忽悠。而且时间不能太久。这里并不存在左派好还是右派好的问题。即使没有民主制度，只要社会左右来回忽悠，社会就稳定。所以，民主不民主并不重要，重要的是社会是否能按时来回忽悠，因为社会是生命现象，而润涛阎第一定律表明：生命在于忽悠。不民主但能够按时忽悠，社会稳定和发展毫无问题。只要当政者懂得润涛阎第一定律按时左右忽悠就成。并非一派好另一派不好。润涛阎第一定律表明：左派右派都是社会存在所需要的，两派都是社会忽悠的构成要素。邪恶的只是该忽悠时没忽悠。

只是人的贪婪总会走向极端，否则，不会改弦更张的。毛泽东左到了极点，跑步进入共产主义，随后才是邓小平开始到今天的极右。毛泽东搞得都到了禁欲的边缘了，才会有现在乱性的地步。比如钟摆，比如荡秋千，往左走多远，然后就得往右走多远。这就是生命现象，而生命在于忽悠。社会的忽悠总是不撞南墙不回头。

Rotating power between left and right is crucial to social stability: The same principle applies to various social components since society and its components are living phenomenon, and it must swing from one side to the other. That is: 30 years east of the river, then 30 years west of the river. When 30 years is too long for the left, it is time for the right to come to power. At the heart of the democratic system established in the West is the institutional guarantee that left and right will alternate in power. No party should be in power for too long. It is not a question of whether the left is better or the right is better. Even if there is no democracy, as long as the left and the right swing back and forth in an autocratic society, society is stable. Because society is a phenomenon of life, and Runtao Yan’s first law indicates that life lives in swinging. Both left and right are necessary for the existence of society, and are the constituent elements of social swinging. Unfortunately, greed easily drives people to extremes, which leads to reversal once the extreme point is reached. Mao Zedong led China to the far left with the slogan “China is running into communism,” only to be followed by Deng Xiaoping who started the far right to where we are today, where all the Chinese are crazy about money and nothing else. Mao Zedong pushed people to the edge of abstinence, which is why they are so promiscuous now. Like a pendulum, how far it swings to the left, then how far it has to swing to the right. Runtao Yan’s first law discloses that society always makes a U-turn after reaching the end point.

生活方式:

美国的过度提前消费快走到头了。然后就是180度大拐弯。救市、注资，然后通货膨胀。震荡过后，提前消费的生活方式和社会管理方式才能告别历史。但不会放过婴儿潮这一代的。否则就不符合“出来混总是要还的” 这一铁律了。原因很简单：是这一代人耗尽了石油：要开车到远远的地方去住，要开大轮子的耗油的哀思尤为（SUV）；是这代人提前消费，把环境给毁坏了，把下代的资源提前消费了。等到这代人退休，股市债市暴跌，不仅退休金401K付之东流了，连社保金也泡汤了。他们想靠住房养老但房价暴跌，然后物价飞涨，退休金不够买吃的。很快就会看到通货膨胀的力量有多大。10美元买一斤水果蔬菜，10美元买一加仑汽油的日子不会太遥远。

Lifestyle: America’s excessive early consumption is coming to an end. The financial crisis is approaching, and when it happens, government bailouts and capital injections will come first, followed by hyperinflation, leading to economic turmoil. By then, the consumerist lifestyle and the way society is run will be consigned to history. The baby boomers will not be spared. This is in accordance with the iron law that “you must pay back what you put out”. The reason is very simple: it is the baby boomer generation that has exhausted the oil by living in the suburbs, driving long distances to work, and driving SUVs instead of fuel-efficient cars. Their materialistic consumption is destroying the environment and depleting the resources of the next generation. When this generation retired, the stock and bond markets crashed. Not only were their 401K pensions in vain, but so were their Social Security funds. They want to rely on housing for their retirement, but housing prices plummet, and then the price of housing suppliers skyrocket, and their retirement funds are not enough to buy food. It will not take long to see how powerful inflation can be. The day when $10 for a pound of fruits and vegetables and $10 for a gallon of gasoline is not far off.

总统选举：

我预测谁当选前，“群体意识流”因子是一个参数。比如：奥巴马太年轻，接下来的如果有长者，就有“群体意识流”优点，我给的分数就高。比如川普太没政治素养，如果竞选者是有政治经验的老油条，“群体意识流”分数就高。川普和拜登都不是喜欢打仗的人，这也许是美国人民大众害怕战争的心理因素在起主导作用，才让他俩登上舞台。人们认可嘴炮也强过令无数人死亡的枪炮。两个嘴炮便可带领美国步入老年。然而，社会是在两头忽悠（荡秋千）的方式下发展的。2024年，极可能是罗斯福那样的好战、锐意改革的人出来执政。

Presidential Elections: The ‘group mind’ factor is a parameter when I predict who will be elected. For example: Obama was too young, after his term ends, if the next candidate is older, there is a ‘group mind’ advantage and I give a higher score. Another example is that Trump is too politically inexperienced, if the next candidate has a lot of political experience, the ‘group mind’ factor is higher. Neither Trump nor Biden is a fan of war, indicating the fact that most voters are afraid of war, which is why they were elected. These voters prefer a mouthpiece to a fighter. The winner of the 2020 election, either Trump or Biden, will lead the United States into old age. However, society lives in swinging. In 2024, it is very likely that a militant and reform-minded person like Roosevelt will come to power.

股市：

如果股市只升不降，股市的生命早就结束了。如果股市只降不升，股市早就关门了。股市之所以长久不衰，就因为它来回忽悠。股市的生命也照样在于忽悠。

Stock Market: If the stock market only goes up and never goes down, the life of the stock market would have ended long ago. If the stock market only goes down and never goes up, the stock market would have closed long ago. The reason the stock market has lasted so long is because it swings. The life of the stock market also lives in swinging.

婚姻：

因为有结婚有离婚，婚姻就成了生命现象，而生命在于忽悠。几乎所有结过两次婚以上的到后来都怀念原配，又忽悠回去了。

Marriage: Because there are marriages and divorces, marriage becomes a phenomenon of life, and life lives in swinging. Almost everyone who marries twice or more later misses their first spouse and remarries first spouse or someone similar.

媒体：

美国的左派媒体太多，是致命伤。任何系统都要平衡。只有到了极端才产生物极必反现象。由于左派媒体太多，失去了平衡时间太久，网络媒体就会把川普送上总统位子。这是我在大选前就清楚了的，就知道川普会上台。

Media: There is too much left-wing media in the United States, which is a fatal flaw. Any system needs to be balanced, because when things become extreme, they go in the opposite direction. There is too much left-wing media, and the balance has been broken for too long, the public has lost trust in the mainstream media, and as a result, social media propelled Trump to the presidency. This was clear to me before the election and I knew Trump would come to power.

言论自由：

社会就是在开与关之间忽悠。毛泽东的大关闭导致邓小平的大开放。下一次的言论自由放开，其程度之大可想而知。就好比毛泽东把社会拉到了禁欲主义边缘，一放开，就是大尺度的性解放。所以，从稍微长远一点看，我们没必要对国内现在收紧言论自由感到悲观，只是一张一弛过程中的一步而已。下一次放开，国内任何人都随便可以读润涛阎的文章了。毛泽东培养出来的红卫兵那代人很快就走入历史了。

Freedom of speech: Social elements live in swing. Mao Zedong’s “Closing the Door” policy is replaced by Deng Xiaoping’s “Great Opening” policy. The next time China’s freedom of speech is liberalized, you will see how great it will be. It’s as if Mao Zedong brought society to the brink of asceticism. After he died, there was sexual liberation on a large scale. So, in the long run, we need not be pessimistic about the current tightening of freedom of speech in China. It is just one step in the swinging process. Soon everyone in the country will be able to read Runtao Yan’s articles. The generation of Red Guards trained by Mao Zedong will soon be history.

禁欲时代过后，纵欲一定疯狂:

给女人蒙脸罩的地方强奸案件肯定最高。假如人人裸体，人对性爱就不会有激情，也就杜绝了强奸。时时刻刻见到异性裸体的人是不能积累荷尔蒙的就象长江水慢慢地流走了；人穿衣服如同筑坝，一见到异性就大坝决堤。

社会由一个极端走向了另一个极端。从一种悲哀走向另一种悲哀。如同荡秋千，来回忽悠。这是社会的生命所在，符合润涛阎第一定律：生命在于忽悠。

After the era of abstinence, indulgence must be crazy:

Rape cases must be highest where women are veiled. If everyone is naked, one would not be passionate about sex, and rape would be eliminated. People who see the naked body of the opposite sex all the time cannot accumulate hormones, just like the Yangtze River water slowly flowing away; wearing clothes is like building a dam that bursts when seeing the opposite sex.

Society and its components have always swung from one extreme to the other. From one sadness to another. This is how the society lives, which is in line with Runtao Yan’s first law: life lives in swinging.

III. 生命在于忽悠之预测未来– 人口数量以及社会制度轮回 Life lives in swinging – Prediction of the future population and social system

总结：人口数量以及社会制度轮回：[帝制/独裁->人口增加]–>【人口增加和天灾导致粮食短缺】–>[内乱和外战] –> [民主社会->人口减少->人类灭绝的压力]–> [帝制/独裁->人口增多] (该轮回在未来循环往复的前提是：人类未实施基因改造以消除崇拜基因，或未来机器人没有发明性愉悦能力，成为地球的主宰取代人类)

Summary: Dictatorship or autocracy always accompanies with increased population, because controlling women to bear more children is the basic way of ruling in the autocratic system, while democracy gives people more freedom, especially the right to marriage and fertility, which accompanies with decreased population. According to Runtao Yan 1st Law “Life lives in oscillation” & 9th Law “Once a social inertia system is formed, it is bound to come to an end”. Declining population triggers fear of extinction of the human species, leading from democracy to autocracy or dictatorship.

个人主义必然导致人口下降连两千年前的孔子都看到了。历史也必将证明此乃铁律。如何解决这一难题，除了孔子之外（集体主义+高度极权牺牲个人自由的帝制->越穷越多生孩子），恐怕还没有别人想出更好的办法。你既要尊重妇女，你就不能强迫她们多生孩子；用钱引诱也是徒劳的。因为女人越是有钱有地位有个人自由，她们越不生孩子。越是穷，生孩子越多。

Individualism will inevitably lead to population decline. Even Confucius saw this 2,000 years ago. History will surely prove that this is an iron law. I am afraid that no one other than Confucius came up with a better solution to this dilemma. His theory is that in the highly totalitarian imperial system with collectivism at the expense of individual freedom, women are discriminated against and turned into baby-making machines; the poorer people are, the more children they have. In civilized society, women receive more respect and there is less external pressure on them to bear more children. The financial incentives for fertility will not work either. The more money, status, and personal freedom women have, the less likely they are to have children. Conversely, poorer people tend to have more children.

同性恋是指同性之间的爱情与性行为。其特点就是与生育无关。单独限制在繁衍后代的角度来讲，同性恋是违反自然的。然而，人类(包括动物)的爱情并非仅仅是为了繁衍后代，而且有乐趣的成分。从这方面来说，同性恋又不违反自然。因为它不仅提供了乐趣的做爱目的，而且还解决了避孕的难题。从社会构成上来讲，当人口过剩时，同性恋有正面意义；当人类面临灭绝的时候，同性恋毫无疑问会有负面影响。

Homosexuality is about loving and sexually acting with people of the same gender. It does not affect fertility in any way. In terms of procreation alone, homosexuality is unnatural. However, love among humans (including animals) is not just for procreation, but also for pleasure. From this perspective, homosexuality is not unnatural. Because it not only provides fun sex purposes, but also solves the problem of contraception. From a sociological point of view, homosexuality is beneficial when there is overpopulation and certainly detrimental when human extinction is imminent.

一旦整个社会解除婚姻，家庭解体，人口就会成直线下降。到那时，人类必须重新尊孔。现在是西方文明战胜了东方文明，因为科学尤其是医学的进步，使人口在过去的100年中迅猛发展。人口少的西方凭借科学的进步就能战胜人口众多的尊孔的东方。等到自由度极大增加，同性恋、单身党大行其道，家庭就要解体，女人都不再愿意生孩子了。从而导致人口迅速下降，只要平均一个妇女只生一个孩子，每过一代人(25年)人口就要减半。也就是说，60亿25年后变成30亿；50年后变成15亿；75年后变成8亿；100年后就只有4亿了(取整数)。200年后，整个地球的人口还不到今天一个台湾岛的人口了。

When the entire society dissolves marriage and the family disintegrates, the world’s population will plummet. At that time, mankind will have to restore respect for Confucius. Right now, Western civilization, which is based on individualism, is winning over Eastern civilization, which is based on collectivism, because the Western countries’ advances in science and technology, especially medicine, have led to rapid population growth in the last 100 years. The small-population West can defeat the large-population East, which honors Confucius with virtue. When freedom increases tremendously and homosexuality and celibacy become popular, the family will disintegrate and women will not want to have more children. This will lead to a rapid decline in the population, which will cut in half every generation of 25 years if the average woman has only one child. In other words, 6 billion will drop to 3 billion in 25 years, 1.5 billion in 50 years, 800 million in 75 years, and only 400 million in 100 years, if rounding up to the nearest whole number. In 200 years, the population of the entire earth will be less than the population of the island of Taiwan today.

人类以这样的速度递减，几百年后就面临人类种族灭绝的危险了。到那时孔孟之道将是解决这一社会难题的必由之路。人类将再次尊孔，社会再次轮回到高度极权牺牲个人自由的帝制。君为臣纲、夫为妻纲、父为子纲的孔孟之道必然恢复。因为只有这样，才能矫枉过正，从而拯救人类于濒于灭绝之境地。直到人口再次膨胀后，个人自由才能再次轮回。离婚、单身、同性恋又野火烧不尽，春风吹又生了。

At such a rate of decline, human will face extinction in a few hundred years. At that time, the Confucian and Mencius way will be the way to solve this social problem. Mankind will once again honor Confucius, and society will once again return to a highly totalitarian imperial system at the expense of individual freedom. The Confucian and Mencius way, the concept of the Three Bonds that ‘the retainer depends on his lord to gain merit; the son depends on his father; the wife on her husband,’ and The Three Obediences that ‘instruct that a woman is obligated not to act on her own initiatives and must submissively obey or follow her father at home before getting married, obey her husband after getting married, and obey her sons after her husband’s death’, will surely be restored. This is the only way to increase the population and save humanity from extinction. Only when the population increases can personal freedom be restored, which is accompanied by a boom in divorce, celibacy, and homosexuality.

所以，人口数量决定社会制度，决定个体自由的程度，包括家庭、婚姻、爱情的自由程度。

在科学不发达的时候，能保住人口增长的社会制度比较先进，因为国家比较强大能战胜弱国(当然也有弱国战胜强国的例外)。当科学发达，“人多”不再等于“势众”的时候，个人自由得到充分发挥的社会制度比较先进。

Therefore, the size of the population determines the social system and the degree of individual freedom, including the degree of freedom of family, marriage, and love.

When science is not advanced, the social system that keeps the population growing is more advanced, because the country with more people in the Cold War era is stronger and can overcome the weaker countries. Of course, there are exceptions when the weaker countries defeat the stronger ones. When science is advanced and “population” no longer equals “power,” the social system that gives full play to individual freedom is more advanced.

集体主义的社会制度与文明能够保持人口处在一个常数甚至增加；而个人主义的发展结果将是人口迅速下降。

那么，中国能不能超近路不走民主自由之路？这绝对不可能成功。就连中东强大的伊斯兰教都抵抗不住民主自由风潮。因为西方民主自由风潮是以经济全球一体化为开路先锋的。中国全方位与国际接轨是迟早的事，当个人自由发展到一定程度，专制制度的大堤就会决口，民主制度将会诞生。以“国家利益高于个人利益”为宗旨的“集体主义”必将让位给以“个人自由高于国家自由”为宗旨的“个人主义”。

那么为何几百年后，中国社会结构与制度与西方全方位接轨后(个人主义彻底代替了集体主义)，中国又会在从个人主义向集体主义轮回时再次落伍呢？这是因为社会惯性使然。一个社会的制度转型，要经过上百年的时间。日本从建立民主开始至今已有100多年了，现在还没有全方位与欧美接轨。还需要50年。没有200年的时间，中国不可能达到全方位与欧美接轨，彻底铲除几千年传统文化的影响决非易事。

The social system and civilization based on collectivism can maintain the population at a constant level or even increase it, but individualism will lead to a rapid decline in the population.

So, can China take the shortcut and not follow the path from autocracy and collectivism to democracy and individual freedom? It could never work. Even the powerful Islam of the Middle East cannot resist the trend of democratic freedom. The reason is that the trend of democracy and freedom in the West is spearheaded by the globalization of the economy. Sooner or later, China will be fully integrated into the international community, and when individual freedom develops to a certain extent, the dike of the authoritarian system will break and a democratic system will be born. The “national interests over individual interests” of “collectivism” will give way to “individual freedom over national freedom” of “individualism”.

So why is it that after hundreds of years, when China’s social structure and system have caught up with Western democracy, with individualism as the main characteristic, China will again lag behind Western countries that will be transforming from individualism to collectivism? This is due to social inertia. The institutional transformation of a society must take hundreds of years. It has been more than 100 years since the establishment of democracy in Japan, and it has not caught up with Europe and the United States. It needs another 50 years. Without 200 years, China cannot achieve full integration with the democracy of Europe and the United States, and it is not easy to completely eradicate the influence of thousands of years of traditional culture.

5百年后，等到社会制度轮回，从最大限度容许个人自由的个人主义制度转回到限制个人自由的集体主义制度时，把集体主义发展到极致的毛泽东这个混世魔王就会成为神。因为他不仅提倡个人利益无条件服从集体利益，而且还要“狠批私字一闪念，灵魂深处闹革命。”他还主张“人多力量大，只要有了人，什么人间奇迹也可以创造出来。”个人主义是以人性为最高价值，而毛泽东彻底批判人性论。毛泽东这些现代文明的倒行逆施，恰恰是集体主义制度建立时所需要的。至于毛泽东残暴地杀戮普通公民的罪恶，那时的人们就不会去计较了。我实在担心这样的制度轮回，但愿我的预测完全错误。算是杞人忧天吧。反正我们都见不到了，想到这里心里还舒服一点。问题在于，个人主义必然导致人口下降连两千年前的孔子都看到了。历史也必将证明此乃铁律。

Five hundred years from now, when the social system is reincarnated and changes from an individualist system that maximizes individual freedom to a collectivist system that restricts individual freedom, Mao Zedong, the demon king who developed collectivism to the extreme, will become a new god. For he not only advocated the unconditional subordination of individual interests to collective interests, but also that “everyone must criticize his selfishness at every moment.” He also advocated that “Population is power, and with more people any miracle can be created.” Individualism regards human nature as the highest value, but Mao Zedong thoroughly criticized human nature. Mao Zedong’s perversion of modern civilization was exactly what was needed to establish the collectivist system. As for Mao Zedong’s crime of brutally killing ordinary citizens, people in the future would not care. I am really worried about the reincarnation of this system, and I hope that my prediction is completely wrong. We will not see it anyway, which is a little more comforting to think about. The problem is that individualism inevitably leads to population decline, as Confucius discovered 2,000 years ago. History will surely prove that this is an iron law.

民主与专制轮回：Swinging of social systems: Democracy vs. Autocracy

人类的历史到今天为止可以说是个血腥的历史。从精神领域来讲，经历了圣人的思想熏陶、宗教神的洗脑、无神论物理思维(唯物主义)的灌输；从社会制度来讲，经历了原始共产主义、奴隶、帝制、民主制、马列公有制以及多制共容。然而，人类和平仍然是而且只能是人类的理想。

Human history is full of blood. In the spiritual realm, it has gone through the ideological indoctrination of saints, the brainwashing of religious gods, and the indoctrination of atheistic physical thinking (materialism); and in terms of social systems, it has gone through primitive communism, slavery, empire, democracy, Marxist-Leninist communalism, and multi-system coexistence. Long-term peace, however, is only a legend.

古希腊实行的民主制是人类早期的杰作。人类文明在2400多年前就有了人人平等的意识。想到此，我们不能不为古人的智慧与胆识而惊叹。然而，古希腊通过民主，处死了人类的智慧之星、先知先觉的先哲苏格拉底。老苏排在古希腊三大智者之首(其次是柏拉图和亚里氏多德)。老苏喝毒药之前心情何等复杂不得而知，尽管他告诉他的学生柏拉图等人说： “我死你们活，只有上帝知道谁更幸福。”

The democracy practiced in ancient Greece was an early masterpiece of mankind. Human civilization had a sense of equality for all more than 2,400 years ago. When we think about this, we cannot but marvel at the wisdom and audacity of the ancients.

However, through democratic vote, ancient Greece executed Socrates, the star of human wisdom and the prophet of foresight. Socrates ranked first among the three wisest men in ancient Greece, followed by Plato and Aristotle. It is unknown what mixed feelings Socrates had before drinking the poison, although he told his students, Plato, and others, “I die and you live, and only God knows who is happier.”

民主的古希腊被专制的古罗马灭亡后，每当人民想起苏格拉底之死便“谈民主色变”。专制一下子走了一千多年。其中有东方的圣人的思想熏陶、西方的政教合一与之配合。帝制不论是西方的政教合一还是东方的孔子儒术，其黑暗远非民主的古希腊能望其项背。到了13世纪，英国的贵族们又开始对变革社会制度有了信心，重新轮回民主制度。资本主义的大力发展又诞生了马克思主义。中国赶上了这次班车诞生了毛泽东思想。

After the democratic ancient Greece was destroyed by the autocratic ancient Rome, when people thought of the death of Socrates, they became afraid at the mere mention of democracy. Autocracy continued for more than a thousand years in both Western and Eastern countries, supported by the ideology of the unity of church and state in the West and Confucianism in the East. The thousand years of autocratic systems were far darker than the democratic ancient Greece. In the 13th century, the British aristocrats began to have confidence in changing the social system and reincarnated the democratic system. The vigorous development of capitalism gave birth to Marxism. China caught up with this bus and Mao Zedong Thought was born.

纵观历史，我们应该发现：奴隶制是对人类文明的摧残与侮辱；帝制给人类带来的痛苦众所周知，无庸讳言。需要强调的是民主制度。撇开古希腊按照多数民意，民主的处死了苏格拉底不谈，就是这次轮回，民主的英国对不民主的国家进行了疯狂掠夺的殖民统治。用炮火打开中国国门后最大的买卖竟然是向中国卖鸦片！德国实现民主后选出了希特勒，引发第二次世界大战。毒死犹太人达600万之众。希特勒杀死的人超过千万。按照死人的数量计，民主制造成的灾难最大。按金钱计算，美国在二战中的损失和军事花费折成现在的比价是美国历史上至今所有战争(独立战争、南北战争、越战、韩战、对伊拉克战争)总和的五倍以上。其它国家的数据本人没见到。中国甲午战败的赔款是以亿两白银为单位的。

Throughout history, we know that slavery is a devastation and insult to human civilization; the pain that imperialism has brought to mankind is well known and cannot be denied. What needs to be emphasized is the democratic system. Aside from the fact that ancient Greece democratically executed Socrates by a majority vote, after democracy was restored in Western countries, the democratic Britain carried out a colonial rule of crazy looting on undemocratic countries. After opening China’s gate with artillery fire, the biggest business turned out to sell opium to China to make up for the export deficit in the 19th century! After Germany achieved democracy, Hitler was elected and started World War II. Under Hitler, Germany murdered over six million Jews and over ten million people in total. In terms of the number of deaths, democracy has caused the greatest disaster compared to other social systems. In monetary terms, the U.S. military expenditures and losses in World War II were more than five times the total cost of all wars in U.S. history to date, including the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, the Vietnam War, the Korean War, and the war with Iraq. I have not seen data for other countries. China’s reparations for defeat in the Sino-Japanese War were in the billions of taels of silver.

事实上亚洲的情况更是令人齿冷。日本在1890年实现民主，1893年就打中国。然后，又开始了日俄战争；二战时再次屠杀中韩等亚洲国民百姓。德国的民主造就了魔鬼希特勒，日本的民主造就了疯狂的军国主义份子。

In fact, the situation in Asia is even worse. Japan achieved democracy in 1890 and invaded China in 1893. Then the Russo-Japanese War began; during World War II, the Japanese massacred the people of China, South Korea, and other Asian countries. Germany’s democracy produced the devil Hitler, and Japan’s democracy produced crazy militarists.

二战后确实有了相对的和平。对造成相对和平的原因有两种解释：(1)核武器掌握在两个国家以上使得任何国家不敢轻举妄动；(2)美国的民主制改变了世界格局。平心而论，很难说清真正原因是哪一条。很可能两个因素都起作用。

There was a temporary peace after World War II. There are two explanations: (1) The possession of nuclear weapons by more than two countries prevented any country from doing anything rash; and (2) the global dominance and democracy of the United States changed the world landscape. To be fair, it is hard to say which is the real reason. It is likely that both factors played a role.

如果第二种解释是对的，等到全世界都实现了民主后估计会有相当长的和平时期。但无论如何也很难象帝制维持那么长时间。全世界都是民主制度也和平不了几百年，战争还会爆发。到那时，人们又要怀疑是制度问题了。

If the second explanation is correct, we may have a long period of peace after democracy is achieved worldwide. But the peace will not last as long as in the era of autocracy. A few hundred years after world democracy, war will break out. At that time, people will begin to suspect that the cause of the war is the democratic system.

因为人能想象出来的制度都试过了，也就只好轮回旧制度了。至於是帝制还是共产主义，就很难预测了。当然也难肯定未来人想象不出新的制度。有一点可以肯定的是：民主制度绝不能给人类带来永久和平。

Since human tried all political systems they could image, there is no alternative but to reincarnate the old system. It is difficult to predict whether it will be imperialism or communism in the future. Of course, it is also possible that man will create a new system. One thing is certain: democracy will not bring permanent peace to mankind.

IV. 人类如何避免自毁的宿命？Life lives in swinging: Solution to Human Survival

经过几百万年的进化，人的本性依然保持着，变化很小。人的贪婪、自私、嫉妒与怕死怕贫穷怕自己的孩子被别人的孩子瞧不起、霸凌。这些特征从古至今没变。贪婪过度会导致自己毁灭。人类迟早会自己毁掉自己。途径无外乎两条：一是男人发动核战争；二是女人地位提高到一定程度后大部分妇女拒绝生孩子。

After millions of years of evolution, human nature has remained unchanged with very little change, including greed, selfishness, jealousy, fear of death, fear of poverty, and fear that their children will be looked down upon and bullied by other people’s children. These characteristics have not changed since ancient times. Greed will lead human to overuse natural and human resources, resulting in human extinction. Sooner or later, human beings will destroy themselves in two ways: one is for men to start a nuclear war; the other is for most women to refuse to have children after their status improves to a certain level.

润涛阎经过几十年的思考得出的结论是：人类最大的痴心妄想有两条：(1)改变人的本能；(2)改变人的欲望。在这里只是强调一下：“温饱思淫欲”是男人的天性；“女人对金钱的痴迷”这个欲望是无法消除的。金钱对女人的诱惑推高着金钱的价值；女人对男人的诱惑导致男人为金钱地位而抛头颅洒热血丢官坐牢在所不惜。

After decades of thinking, Runtao Yan concluded that there are two biggest wishful thinking of human beings: (1) Change people’s instincts; (2). Change people’s desires. I just want to emphasize here: It is a man’s nature to love women because of the sexual pleasure; and it is a woman’s nature to love money because it is essential for the survival of the woman and her children. Neither nature can be eliminated. Women’s temptation to money makes them overestimate the value of money; men’s temptation to sex makes them sacrifice their lives, blood, freedom, and even go to jail for money and status.

社会制度约束人的本能只能在短期内达到极端程度。靠思想教育宗教洗礼也不能永久改变所有人的欲望。对人的欲望的压抑越残酷，其压力失效后的反弹就越大。

Social systems can only constrain people’s instincts to extreme levels in the short term. Relying on ideological education and religious baptism cannot permanently change everyone’s desires. The more brutal the repression of human desires, the greater the rebound when the pressure fails.

总之，无论政治家们如何用心良苦，其结果只能是短期内改变人的本能与欲望。压力一旦缓解，大规模的抗争就要爆发。在这过程中，一定伴随着制度轮回和精神教义的改变。每一次制度轮回，大多数人都会象吃了精神刺激药丸一样表达出对新的制度失去理性的疯狂崇拜。认定主义真，死了也无恨。但有一点是肯定的：唯有少数智者明白什么社会制度、什么神圣教义统统都是乌托邦。

In short, no matter how well-intentioned the politicians, the result can only be a short-term change in people’s instincts and desires. Once the pressure is relieved, large-scale protests will break out. This process has always been accompanied by changes in institutional reincarnation and spiritual teachings. Each time the system reincarnates, most people will express their irrational and crazy worship of the new system as if they had taken psychostimulant pills. They would die for the system. One thing is certain: only a few wise people understand that all social systems and sacred teachings are utopias.

人类的智慧能否在上帝毁灭人之前改造自己？其实，路子还有。但不是靠制度轮回，也不是靠思想改造。因为这些只能是“治表不治本”。

Can human transform themselves before God destroys human? In fact, there is still a way. But it does not rely on social system reincarnation, nor does it rely on ideological reform. Because these can only treat the symptoms but not the root cause.

治本的路有两条：一是器官移植。自然界只有猪的器官跟人的对应器官大小、形状一致。因为单一器官能对大脑思维产生影响，经此路改造的人(猪人)要比从猴变的人理性得多。

另一条路是通过染色体硷基对顺序比较，找出人的感性思维基因和猪的理性思维基因。然后在分子生物学基础上改造人的遗传特徵。

There are two ways to solve the problem: one is organ transplantation. Only pig organs in nature have the same size and shape as their human counterparts. A single organ can affect the thinking of the brain. The pig behaves more rationally than the human because the pig does not have the God gene like the human, so transplanting some of the pig’s organs into the human can produce a more rational human.

Another way is to find out the genes for emotional thinking in humans and the genes for rational thinking in pigs by comparing the sequence of chromosome base pairs. The genetic characteristics of human beings can then be modified based on molecular biology.