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阎友们，
大家好。
老阎生前给大家介绍过“识人”与“断事”的具体操作。今天编者就从老阎的一些理论及对未来的预测、结合当前的时事新闻，对Elon Musk 的未来做一个预测。双引号“ ”里的内容为老阎原话。
欢迎大家在评论区讨论提出你的看法。
谢谢大家。
大智若愚33
新闻链接：
Elon Musk’s super PAC increases spending to help Trump
Elon Musk’s PAC is pouring millions into these 14 districts to keep the GOP in control of the House
Elon Musk’s X and Starlink face nearly $1 million in daily fines for alleged ban evasion in Brazil
阎文索引：
总结：Elon Musk之未来预测：结局不会好。
原因：
1. Musk有了钱名后追逐政治权力、殊不知这是在玩火。
因为 “用唯心主义的观点来说，老天爷不会把所有的好处都给一个人的。智慧，就是要了解这浅显的道理。有了名，那就把挣钱的机会留给他人；有了钱，就别再买个博士帽或高帽戴了。不论是有了权或有了名，就应该视金钱为粪土。这就是智慧与聪明的区别。”
而Musk有了钱与名气后，在施加政治影响力的权力追逐上一骑绝尘、势不可挡。
2. Musk政治上幼稚且无识人的能力。
Musk聪明，但无智慧。竟然去趟政治这趟浑水：公开支持Trump并提供资金和X平台对其助选。识人上认不清“一个谎话连篇的大忽悠、犯罪分子、蠢货川普”。如果说Trump第一任期的铁杆粉丝是初期识人不明，但他们后来迷途知返：“铁杆川粉，只要到了川普身边，立刻就清楚了自己崇拜的竟然是这么一个idiot，才恍然大悟，离他而去，然后写书披露事实。”Musk现在大张旗鼓地支持Trump，实在是匪夷所思。
Musk不识政治为何物：“ 政治，毕竟是高智商者才应该玩弄的东西。对参与了政治的人来说，权力就是精神鸦片。政治扭曲人性，为了权力，政治家都成了流氓恶棍。政治，说穿了，就是实力的较量。政治，尤其是党派，只能旁观，不能介入。一旦介入，就很容易走火入魔。”
不论Musk介入政治的目的是不是理想主义：为了人类更加美好的未来。他的所做所为都将是无用功。因为他不明白这些道理：
“在政治领域，动机与效果绝大多数情况下是相反的。政治，绝对不能拿动机说事。何况动机和效果基本上是相反的。到目前为止，马克思的理论其它可以都是错的，唯独他的“异化理论”是经得起历史检验了的真理。全球都一样。想玩政治的蠢人太多，导致“动机与效果相反”的普世性。”
“历史的发展绝不会以人的意志为转移。我们需要知道的只是历史发展的轨迹，而无法改变这个轨迹。”
“ 从历史长河讲，不论是革命还是改革，都是竹篮打水一场空。历史有其自身的发展规律，不以人的意志为转移。人，不论秉承什么意志，只有短期效果。”
“因为整个系统腐败了，那只能是撞南墙，不可能在未撞南墙前能靠某人挽救得了的。人类历史表明，任何一个社会惯性系一旦开启，那它一定走到终点，直到撞南墙为止。”
“社会的忽悠总是不撞南墙不回头。美国的过度提前消费快走到头了。然后就是180度大拐弯。 救市、注资，然后通货膨胀。震荡过后，提前消费的生活方式和社会管理方式才能告别历史。”
3. 社会大环境的变化必然对Musk商业帝国带来毁灭性的打击
“当中国发生社会大动荡，表面上是经济危机或党内争权夺势，其本质一定是贫富差距太大造成的；当美国发生社会大动荡，表面上是经济危机或债务危机，其本质也一定是贫富差距太大导致的。当两国都走到了财富在极少数人手中社会两极分化到无以为继地步，靠小打小闹的改革是无法解决的，因为那是换汤不换药。”
美国：美国债务危机与经济危机的爆发箭在弦上。股市崩盘对Musk商业帝国资金链的供给是摧毁性的，盖其以Tesla股票资助其他烧钱的公司。此外、联邦政府与私人公司在经济危机后必然大幅缩减Space X与Starlink上的消费。
中国：中国经济发展进入到了S曲线的第三阶段”资源的枯竭使发展速度立刻停下来，导致“硬着陆”的必然“，经济危机与大规模失业不可避免，加上中共有‘打土豪分田地’的传统，Tesla中国工厂极有可能被‘共产’而导致其投资血本无归。
Editor’s Note: In several writings, Lao Yan presented the fundamentals of “knowing people” and “judging things,” offering both theoretical and practical advice. Lao Yan’s hypotheses and future forecasts will be the foundation for the editor’s prognosis regarding Elon Musk’s future in the article, in addition to the latest news. Texts encased in double quotes (“”) are taken from articles written by Lao Yan.
Please share your ideas in the comment section.
To sum up, Elon Musk’s future is not bright.
Reasons:
1. Musk began pursuing for political power after gaining wealth and notoriety, but he iss unaware that he is taking a risk.
Because “God, in an idealistic sense, will not give every blessing to one person. This fundamental truth is known to the enlightened person. A wealthy individual should not want greater notoriety; a famous person should give up the opportunity to make money to others. Rich people or famous people should consider money to be dirt. This is how wisdom and cunning differ from one another.”
After becoming wealthy and well-known, Musk felt that he could have an impact on politics.
2. Musk lacks political acumen and is incapable of making sound judgments.
Musk is intelligent but unwise. He rushed into the murky world of politics, openly endorsing Trump and offering funding and X platform to aid him in the race. He does not recognize “Trump, a big liar, criminal, and idiot who lies all the time”. “The ardent supporters of Trump during his first term did not know the true color of Trump in their early years, as soon as they got close to Trump, they immediately realized that the person they worshipped was such an idiot, and then they turned against him, and some wrote books to expose the truth.” It’s unbelievable that Musk is now a big fan of Trump.
Musk does not know that “Political power is the spiritual equivalent of opium for people involved in politics. Politicians’ desire for power has twisted them into gangsters and criminals, distorting their basic humanity. A wise individual would never become involved in politics and would just watch it, especially bipartisan rivalry. Once involved, it’s easy to go insane.”
Regardless of whether Musk’s purpose of intervening in politics is idealism: for a better future for mankind. Everything he does will be in vain. Because he does not understand these principles:
“In the political field, motivation and effect are opposite in most cases. So far, other theories of Karl Marx may be wrong, but his “alienation theory” is the truth that has withstood the test of history. It is the same all over the world. There are too many stupid people who want to play politics, which leads to the universality of ‘motivation and effect are opposite’.”
“Human volition can never alter the course of history. Human can only discover the historical growth pattern but can never alter it.”
“From the perspective of the great river of history, all endeavors, whether they revolutionary or reformative, are in vain. Free will does not affect the laws of development that have been established by history. No matter how determined someone is, the results are just temporary. ”
“It is impossible to rely on someone to save it before hitting the wall because the system as a whole is corrupt, and it can only hit the wall.” Any social inertial system that is created will undoubtedly continue until it reaches the wall, as demonstrated by human history.”
“Runtao Yan’s first law, ‘Life lives in swinging’ applies to all societies. The days of American overconsumption are nearly over. After that, a 180-degree turn will occur. Capital infusions, bailouts, and inflation follow. The pre-consumption way of life and social control techniques can then be relegated to the past.”
3. Musk’s corporate empire will unavoidably suffer a severe blow as a result of social and economic environment changes.
“The growing wealth and poverty disparity is the primary cause of social unrest in both China and the US. Even if it may seem that social discontent in the US is tied to debt crisis or economic crises, and that social unrest in China is related to economic crises and internal CCP struggle, the vast disparity between the rich and the poor is ultimately what drives social unrest. Social reform is unable to address the root cause of social polarization because a relatively small number of people in both countries own the majority of the wealth.”
United States: The country’s economic and debt crises are about to explode. Since Musk uses Tesla shares to fund other businesses that require large amounts of capital, the collapse of the stock market will totally disrupt the flow of capital supporting his business empire. Furthermore, following the economic downturn, both the federal government and private businesses will unavoidably cut back heavily on their spendings in Space X and Starlink.
China: The country’s economy has progressed to the third stage of the S curve. The development pace has abruptly ceased due to resource exhaustion, making a “hard landing” inevitable. Widespread unemployment and an economic crisis are unavoidable. Moreover, the CCP has a tradition of “beating the local tyrants and seizing their land.” It is highly likely that the CCP will take Tesla’s Chinese factory, making Musk lose all he invested.
