Editor’s Note: Runtao Yan’s Thirty-Nine Laws are the foundation of his philosophical system, which accurately describe the human nature and their behavioral logic, political system, social development, and the operation and trend of human civilization. These laws predict the future direction of human society.
The article describe historical events and predict the future of civilization based on Runtao Yan’s First Law.
Editor and Writer: Dazhiruoyu33】
生命在于忽悠 Life lives in swinging. 宇宙是生命现象，润涛阎第一定律“生命在于忽悠”不仅符合世间所有的生命现象，也符合宇宙本身。
The universe is a phenomenon of life. The first law of Runtao Yan, “Life lives in swinging.” applies not only to all life in the world, but also to the universe itself.
I. 生命在于忽悠 – 自然科学 Life lives in swinging – Natural Science
Universe: If the universe expands forever, the universe would disappear into the vast darkness and end in death. If the universe only contracts without expanding, the end will still be death. The universe lives by swinging from expansion to contraction.
Fruit crop yields swing: Yields naturally vary from year to year because some trace elements in soil rocks break down very slowly. Roots have to go deep to get enough nutrients. If there is a bumper crop this year due to overuse of nutrients, there will not be enough nutrients left next year, resulting in a smaller crop. The law of “Life lives in swinging” applies to the ecological system.
II. 生命在于忽悠 – 社会科学 Life lives in swinging – Social Science
Rotating power between left and right is crucial to social stability: The same principle applies to various social components since society and its components are living phenomenon, and it must swing from one side to the other. That is: 30 years east of the river, then 30 years west of the river. When 30 years is too long for the left, it is time for the right to come to power. At the heart of the democratic system established in the West is the institutional guarantee that left and right will alternate in power. No party should be in power for too long. It is not a question of whether the left is better or the right is better. Even if there is no democracy, as long as the left and the right swing back and forth in an autocratic society, society is stable. Because society is a phenomenon of life, and Runtao Yan’s first law indicates that life lives in swinging. Both left and right are necessary for the existence of society, and are the constituent elements of social swinging. Unfortunately, greed easily drives people to extremes, which leads to reversal once the extreme point is reached. Mao Zedong led China to the far left with the slogan “China is running into communism,” only to be followed by Deng Xiaoping who started the far right to where we are today, where all the Chinese are crazy about money and nothing else. Mao Zedong pushed people to the edge of abstinence, which is why they are so promiscuous now. Like a pendulum, how far it swings to the left, then how far it has to swing to the right. Runtao Yan’s first law discloses that society always makes a U-turn after reaching the end point.
美国的过度提前消费快走到头了。然后就是180度大拐弯。 救市、注资，然后通货膨胀。震荡过后，提前消费的生活方式和社会管理方式才能告别历史。 但不会放过婴儿潮这一代的。否则就不符合“出来混总是要还的” 这一铁律了。 原因很简单：是这一代人耗尽了石油：要开车到远远的地方去住，要开大轮子的耗油的哀思尤为（SUV）；是这代人提前消费，把环境给毁坏了，把下代的资源提前消费了。等到这代人退休，股市债市暴跌，不仅退休金401K付之东流了，连社保金也泡汤了。他们想靠住房养老但房价暴跌，然后物价飞涨，退休金不够买吃的。很快就会看到通货膨胀的力量有多大。10美元买一斤水果蔬菜，10美元买一加仑汽油的日子不会太遥远。
Lifestyle: America’s excessive early consumption is coming to an end. The financial crisis is approaching, and when it happens, government bailouts and capital injections will come first, followed by hyperinflation, leading to economic turmoil. By then, the consumerist lifestyle and the way society is run will be consigned to history. The baby boomers will not be spared. This is in accordance with the iron law that “you must pay back what you put out”. The reason is very simple: it is the baby boomer generation that has exhausted the oil by living in the suburbs, driving long distances to work, and driving SUVs instead of fuel-efficient cars. Their materialistic consumption is destroying the environment and depleting the resources of the next generation. When this generation retired, the stock and bond markets crashed. Not only were their 401K pensions in vain, but so were their Social Security funds. They want to rely on housing for their retirement, but housing prices plummet, and then the price of housing suppliers skyrocket, and their retirement funds are not enough to buy food. It will not take long to see how powerful inflation can be. The day when $10 for a pound of fruits and vegetables and $10 for a gallon of gasoline is not far off.
Presidential Elections: The ‘group mind’ factor is a parameter when I predict who will be elected. For example: Obama was too young, after his term ends, if the next candidate is older, there is a ‘group mind’ advantage and I give a higher score. Another example is that Trump is too politically inexperienced, if the next candidate has a lot of political experience, the ‘group mind’ factor is higher. Neither Trump nor Biden is a fan of war, indicating the fact that most voters are afraid of war, which is why they were elected. These voters prefer a mouthpiece to a fighter. The winner of the 2020 election, either Trump or Biden, will lead the United States into old age. However, society lives in swinging. In 2024, it is very likely that a militant and reform-minded person like Roosevelt will come to power.
Stock Market: If the stock market only goes up and never goes down, the life of the stock market would have ended long ago. If the stock market only goes down and never goes up, the stock market would have closed long ago. The reason the stock market has lasted so long is because it swings. The life of the stock market also lives in swinging.
Marriage: Because there are marriages and divorces, marriage becomes a phenomenon of life, and life lives in swinging. Almost everyone who marries twice or more later misses their first spouse and remarries first spouse or someone similar.
Media: There is too much left-wing media in the United States, which is a fatal flaw. Any system needs to be balanced, because when things become extreme, they go in the opposite direction. There is too much left-wing media, and the balance has been broken for too long, the public has lost trust in the mainstream media, and as a result, social media propelled Trump to the presidency. This was clear to me before the election and I knew Trump would come to power.
Freedom of speech: Social elements live in swing. Mao Zedong’s “Closing the Door” policy is replaced by Deng Xiaoping’s “Great Opening” policy. The next time China’s freedom of speech is liberalized, you will see how great it will be. It’s as if Mao Zedong brought society to the brink of asceticism. After he died, there was sexual liberation on a large scale. So, in the long run, we need not be pessimistic about the current tightening of freedom of speech in China. It is just one step in the swinging process. Soon everyone in the country will be able to read Runtao Yan’s articles. The generation of Red Guards trained by Mao Zedong will soon be history.
After the era of abstinence, indulgence must be crazy:
Rape cases must be highest where women are veiled. If everyone is naked, one would not be passionate about sex, and rape would be eliminated. People who see the naked body of the opposite sex all the time cannot accumulate hormones, just like the Yangtze River water slowly flowing away; wearing clothes is like building a dam that bursts when seeing the opposite sex.
Society and its components have always swung from one extreme to the other. From one sadness to another. This is how the society lives, which is in line with Runtao Yan’s first law: life lives in swinging.
III. 生命在于忽悠 之预测未来– 人口数量以及社会制度轮回 Life lives in swinging – Prediction of the future population and social system
总结：人口数量以及社会制度轮回：[帝制/独裁->人口增加]–>【人口增加和天灾导致粮食短缺】–>[内乱和外战] –> [民主社会->人口减少->人类灭绝的压力]–> [帝制/独裁->人口增多] (该轮回在未来循环往复的前提是：人类未实施基因改造以消除崇拜基因，或未来机器人没有发明性愉悦能力，成为地球的主宰取代人类)
Summary: Dictatorship or autocracy always accompanies with increased population, because controlling women to bear more children is the basic way of ruling in the autocratic system, while democracy gives people more freedom, especially the right to marriage and fertility, which accompanies with decreased population. According to Runtao Yan 1st Law “Life lives in oscillation” & 9th Law “Once a social inertia system is formed, it is bound to come to an end”. Declining population triggers fear of extinction of the human species, leading from democracy to autocracy or dictatorship.
Individualism will inevitably lead to population decline. Even Confucius saw this 2,000 years ago. History will surely prove that this is an iron law. I am afraid that no one other than Confucius came up with a better solution to this dilemma. His theory is that in the highly totalitarian imperial system with collectivism at the expense of individual freedom, women are discriminated against and turned into baby-making machines; the poorer people are, the more children they have. In civilized society, women receive more respect and there is less external pressure on them to bear more children. The financial incentives for fertility will not work either. The more money, status, and personal freedom women have, the less likely they are to have children. Conversely, poorer people tend to have more children.
Homosexuality is about loving and sexually acting with people of the same gender. It does not affect fertility in any way. In terms of procreation alone, homosexuality is unnatural. However, love among humans (including animals) is not just for procreation, but also for pleasure. From this perspective, homosexuality is not unnatural. Because it not only provides fun sex purposes, but also solves the problem of contraception. From a sociological point of view, homosexuality is beneficial when there is overpopulation and certainly detrimental when human extinction is imminent.
When the entire society dissolves marriage and the family disintegrates, the world’s population will plummet. At that time, mankind will have to restore respect for Confucius. Right now, Western civilization, which is based on individualism, is winning over Eastern civilization, which is based on collectivism, because the Western countries’ advances in science and technology, especially medicine, have led to rapid population growth in the last 100 years. The small-population West can defeat the large-population East, which honors Confucius with virtue. When freedom increases tremendously and homosexuality and celibacy become popular, the family will disintegrate and women will not want to have more children. This will lead to a rapid decline in the population, which will cut in half every generation of 25 years if the average woman has only one child. In other words, 6 billion will drop to 3 billion in 25 years, 1.5 billion in 50 years, 800 million in 75 years, and only 400 million in 100 years, if rounding up to the nearest whole number. In 200 years, the population of the entire earth will be less than the population of the island of Taiwan today.
At such a rate of decline, human will face extinction in a few hundred years. At that time, the Confucian and Mencius way will be the way to solve this social problem. Mankind will once again honor Confucius, and society will once again return to a highly totalitarian imperial system at the expense of individual freedom. The Confucian and Mencius way, the concept of the Three Bonds that ‘the retainer depends on his lord to gain merit; the son depends on his father; the wife on her husband,’ and The Three Obediences that ‘instruct that a woman is obligated not to act on her own initiatives and must submissively obey or follow her father at home before getting married, obey her husband after getting married, and obey her sons after her husband’s death’, will surely be restored. This is the only way to increase the population and save humanity from extinction. Only when the population increases can personal freedom be restored, which is accompanied by a boom in divorce, celibacy, and homosexuality.
Therefore, the size of the population determines the social system and the degree of individual freedom, including the degree of freedom of family, marriage, and love.
When science is not advanced, the social system that keeps the population growing is more advanced, because the country with more people in the Cold War era is stronger and can overcome the weaker countries. Of course, there are exceptions when the weaker countries defeat the stronger ones. When science is advanced and “population” no longer equals “power,” the social system that gives full play to individual freedom is more advanced.
The social system and civilization based on collectivism can maintain the population at a constant level or even increase it, but individualism will lead to a rapid decline in the population.
So, can China take the shortcut and not follow the path from autocracy and collectivism to democracy and individual freedom? It could never work. Even the powerful Islam of the Middle East cannot resist the trend of democratic freedom. The reason is that the trend of democracy and freedom in the West is spearheaded by the globalization of the economy. Sooner or later, China will be fully integrated into the international community, and when individual freedom develops to a certain extent, the dike of the authoritarian system will break and a democratic system will be born. The “national interests over individual interests” of “collectivism” will give way to “individual freedom over national freedom” of “individualism”.
So why is it that after hundreds of years, when China’s social structure and system have caught up with Western democracy, with individualism as the main characteristic, China will again lag behind Western countries that will be transforming from individualism to collectivism? This is due to social inertia. The institutional transformation of a society must take hundreds of years. It has been more than 100 years since the establishment of democracy in Japan, and it has not caught up with Europe and the United States. It needs another 50 years. Without 200 years, China cannot achieve full integration with the democracy of Europe and the United States, and it is not easy to completely eradicate the influence of thousands of years of traditional culture.
Five hundred years from now, when the social system is reincarnated and changes from an individualist system that maximizes individual freedom to a collectivist system that restricts individual freedom, Mao Zedong, the demon king who developed collectivism to the extreme, will become a new god. For he not only advocated the unconditional subordination of individual interests to collective interests, but also that “everyone must criticize his selfishness at every moment.” He also advocated that “Population is power, and with more people any miracle can be created.” Individualism regards human nature as the highest value, but Mao Zedong thoroughly criticized human nature. Mao Zedong’s perversion of modern civilization was exactly what was needed to establish the collectivist system. As for Mao Zedong’s crime of brutally killing ordinary citizens, people in the future would not care. I am really worried about the reincarnation of this system, and I hope that my prediction is completely wrong. We will not see it anyway, which is a little more comforting to think about. The problem is that individualism inevitably leads to population decline, as Confucius discovered 2,000 years ago. History will surely prove that this is an iron law.
民主与专制轮回：Swinging of social systems: Democracy vs. Autocracy
Human history is full of blood. In the spiritual realm, it has gone through the ideological indoctrination of saints, the brainwashing of religious gods, and the indoctrination of atheistic physical thinking (materialism); and in terms of social systems, it has gone through primitive communism, slavery, empire, democracy, Marxist-Leninist communalism, and multi-system coexistence. Long-term peace, however, is only a legend.
The democracy practiced in ancient Greece was an early masterpiece of mankind. Human civilization had a sense of equality for all more than 2,400 years ago. When we think about this, we cannot but marvel at the wisdom and audacity of the ancients.
However, through democratic vote, ancient Greece executed Socrates, the star of human wisdom and the prophet of foresight. Socrates ranked first among the three wisest men in ancient Greece, followed by Plato and Aristotle. It is unknown what mixed feelings Socrates had before drinking the poison, although he told his students, Plato, and others, “I die and you live, and only God knows who is happier.”
After the democratic ancient Greece was destroyed by the autocratic ancient Rome, when people thought of the death of Socrates, they became afraid at the mere mention of democracy. Autocracy continued for more than a thousand years in both Western and Eastern countries, supported by the ideology of the unity of church and state in the West and Confucianism in the East. The thousand years of autocratic systems were far darker than the democratic ancient Greece. In the 13th century, the British aristocrats began to have confidence in changing the social system and reincarnated the democratic system. The vigorous development of capitalism gave birth to Marxism. China caught up with this bus and Mao Zedong Thought was born.
Throughout history, we know that slavery is a devastation and insult to human civilization; the pain that imperialism has brought to mankind is well known and cannot be denied. What needs to be emphasized is the democratic system. Aside from the fact that ancient Greece democratically executed Socrates by a majority vote, after democracy was restored in Western countries, the democratic Britain carried out a colonial rule of crazy looting on undemocratic countries. After opening China’s gate with artillery fire, the biggest business turned out to sell opium to China to make up for the export deficit in the 19th century! After Germany achieved democracy, Hitler was elected and started World War II. Under Hitler, Germany murdered over six million Jews and over ten million people in total. In terms of the number of deaths, democracy has caused the greatest disaster compared to other social systems. In monetary terms, the U.S. military expenditures and losses in World War II were more than five times the total cost of all wars in U.S. history to date, including the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, the Vietnam War, the Korean War, and the war with Iraq. I have not seen data for other countries. China’s reparations for defeat in the Sino-Japanese War were in the billions of taels of silver.
In fact, the situation in Asia is even worse. Japan achieved democracy in 1890 and invaded China in 1893. Then the Russo-Japanese War began; during World War II, the Japanese massacred the people of China, South Korea, and other Asian countries. Germany’s democracy produced the devil Hitler, and Japan’s democracy produced crazy militarists.
There was a temporary peace after World War II. There are two explanations: (1) The possession of nuclear weapons by more than two countries prevented any country from doing anything rash; and (2) the global dominance and democracy of the United States changed the world landscape. To be fair, it is hard to say which is the real reason. It is likely that both factors played a role.
If the second explanation is correct, we may have a long period of peace after democracy is achieved worldwide. But the peace will not last as long as in the era of autocracy. A few hundred years after world democracy, war will break out. At that time, people will begin to suspect that the cause of the war is the democratic system.
Since human tried all political systems they could image, there is no alternative but to reincarnate the old system. It is difficult to predict whether it will be imperialism or communism in the future. Of course, it is also possible that man will create a new system. One thing is certain: democracy will not bring permanent peace to mankind.
IV. 人类如何避免自毁的宿命？Life lives in swinging: Solution to Human Survival
After millions of years of evolution, human nature has remained unchanged with very little change, including greed, selfishness, jealousy, fear of death, fear of poverty, and fear that their children will be looked down upon and bullied by other people’s children. These characteristics have not changed since ancient times. Greed will lead human to overuse natural and human resources, resulting in human extinction. Sooner or later, human beings will destroy themselves in two ways: one is for men to start a nuclear war; the other is for most women to refuse to have children after their status improves to a certain level.
After decades of thinking, Runtao Yan concluded that there are two biggest wishful thinking of human beings: (1) Change people’s instincts; (2). Change people’s desires. I just want to emphasize here: It is a man’s nature to love women because of the sexual pleasure; and it is a woman’s nature to love money because it is essential for the survival of the woman and her children. Neither nature can be eliminated. Women’s temptation to money makes them overestimate the value of money; men’s temptation to sex makes them sacrifice their lives, blood, freedom, and even go to jail for money and status.
Social systems can only constrain people’s instincts to extreme levels in the short term. Relying on ideological education and religious baptism cannot permanently change everyone’s desires. The more brutal the repression of human desires, the greater the rebound when the pressure fails.
In short, no matter how well-intentioned the politicians, the result can only be a short-term change in people’s instincts and desires. Once the pressure is relieved, large-scale protests will break out. This process has always been accompanied by changes in institutional reincarnation and spiritual teachings. Each time the system reincarnates, most people will express their irrational and crazy worship of the new system as if they had taken psychostimulant pills. They would die for the system. One thing is certain: only a few wise people understand that all social systems and sacred teachings are utopias.
Can human transform themselves before God destroys human? In fact, there is still a way. But it does not rely on social system reincarnation, nor does it rely on ideological reform. Because these can only treat the symptoms but not the root cause.
There are two ways to solve the problem: one is organ transplantation. Only pig organs in nature have the same size and shape as their human counterparts. A single organ can affect the thinking of the brain. The pig behaves more rationally than the human because the pig does not have the God gene like the human, so transplanting some of the pig’s organs into the human can produce a more rational human.
Another way is to find out the genes for emotional thinking in humans and the genes for rational thinking in pigs by comparing the sequence of chromosome base pairs. The genetic characteristics of human beings can then be modified based on molecular biology.