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【编者按：
美国大选结果即将揭晓，本文根据润涛阎第一定律“生命在于忽悠”和第二定律“政权兴亡循环论”，对本年的总统竞选获胜者做出一个预测。
“”内容为老阎原话。未加引号部分为编者总结延伸老阎观点。
文章编辑及撰写：大智若愚33】
大智若愚33预测：Trump当选总统的可能性极大。根据“政权兴亡循环论”推导美国衰落历程：始于Reagan, 终于Trump。二者的相似性：
- 都曾是Hollywood二流演员；
- 都主张‘劫贫济富’，任内都大幅消减富豪的税负；
- 名字的相似：Ronald vs. Donald;
- 里根通过建硅谷搞新科技、赦移民，把美国第一大州–加州，变成了蓝州。川普在这方面也许是里根第二：通过建煤矿减新科技、堵移民，把第二大州–德州，也变成蓝州。
Covid-19短暂改道了历史进程。不仅仅延缓了美国债务危机经济危机爆发的时间，也让Biden上台。但历史规律不可违。美国的衰落将会以Trump再次上台而登顶。
原因如下：
润涛阎第一定律：生命在于忽悠。
润涛阎第二定律：政权的兴亡有它自身规律，怎么得到的政权，就怎么失去。第二定律的前提是：没有外敌入侵。外敌入侵或者外星撞地球不在此定律之内。
润涛阎第九定律：任何一个社会惯性系一旦形成，它就必然走到终点。
“历史就是不停地循环往复发生过的事件”“历史重复是可能的，但不能立刻就重复，那将导致瞬间崩盘。”
“因为历史的可重复性，我们可以通过对比历史事件相似性在预测未来时作参考。要了解美国的历史各个时期发生了什么，现在发生的跟历史上哪些地方类似，未来的人口动向，等因素。”
“人的命是天注定的。老天爷让他七十岁死，他在六十岁就死不了。老天爷让他在八十岁死，他就活不到八十一岁。政权也一样。命数到了就重新再来。”“用形而上的观点看来，先哲们说的“出来混，总是要还的”说的就是这个道理。“
“润涛阎第一定律“生命在于忽悠”不仅符合世间所有的生命现象，也符合宇宙本身。”“因为社会是一种生命现象，它必然需要左右忽悠。”
“美国过度提前消费的生活方式和社会管理方式已经走到了头。什么事情都不能过度。中庸之道讲的就是这个道理。 只是人的贪婪总会走向极端，否则，不会改弦更张的。毛泽东左到了极点，跑步进入共产主义，随后才是邓小平开始到今天的极右。毛泽东搞得都到了禁欲的边缘了，才会有现在乱性的地步。比如钟摆，比如荡秋千，往左走多远，然后就得往右走多远。这就是生命现象，而生命在于忽悠。社会的忽悠总是不撞南墙不回头。美国的过度提前消费快走到头了。然后就是180度大拐弯。 救市、注资，然后通货膨胀。震荡过后，提前消费的生活方式和社会管理方式才能告别历史。这当然还有很多年的时间。但不会放过婴儿潮这一代的。否则就不符合“出来混总是要还的”这一铁律了。”
“提前消费”已经成了美国人的文化，不论富人穷人，都抡圆了举债。无论如何处理金融危机，最后的结局还是两种：要么美国给自己多印钞票从而导致通货膨胀，要么允许中国日本中东产油国把大量的美元投入美国市场，从而导致美国的通货膨胀。最后结局是一样的。等到通货膨胀浪潮过后，美国的过度提前消费生活方式就走到头了。”
“里根、川普等共和党就是罗斯福的敌人。是毁掉美国的祸首、败类，因为加大了美国的贫富差距，政府债台高筑，私人飞机越来越大越来越多，各大城市遍地都是无家可归的穷人，令美国开国元勋们蒙羞。在罗斯福新政时，根本就看不到这类情况。私人飞机？门都没有！94%上税。”
“美国的基尼系数高升，是从里根经济学开始的。在罗斯福阶段，亿万富豪上税最高94%。里根经济学从两方面把美国带入长期动乱的险境：一方面政府债台高筑，靠举债度日；另一方面，百姓不存钱，而是“提前消费”就是寅吃卯粮。最终导致贫富差距越来越大，就是基尼系数到了按官方数字也超过了45的地步。这可是亿万富豪们把钱留在海外后的数字。真实数据无法得知。 美国以及欧洲的债务问题说到底就是绝大多数人“眼前怎么舒服就怎么来”的寅吃卯粮习惯造成的，就是今日有酒今朝醉，借债度日。这种习惯很难改变，因为群体的自制力逐代下降了。 “
“美国从最大债权国变成最大债务国是有个缓慢的过程，从体制上讲，是从里根经济学（给亿万富豪减税、寅吃卯粮提前消费）开始的。然而，双子塔的倒掉，诱发小布什找到理由“大规模”开打伊拉克阿富汗八年战争，同时给亿万富豪减税，是令美国变成债台高筑并进入衰退通道的象征性事件。“
“在里根经济学以前，美国顶级大公司的总裁收入是该公司雇员平均收入的80倍。富豪要70%上税。现在顶级大公司总裁的收入是雇员平均收入的340多倍。而且可以逃税，雇员没法逃税。亿万富豪即使不逃税，税率也比雇员低。富豪有五花八门的避税法律而不交税这事是从里根开始一步步走过来的。奥巴马通过行政命令增加了很多规则（来监管金融机构），但都被川普给废了。非但如此，川普还继续给亿万富豪减税。里根的共和党只顾既得利益集团的眼前利益而走向了举债度日、寅吃卯粮、给富豪减税的不归路。因为美国债台高筑靠借钱过日子都到了连利息都还不起地步了。如果没有里根开启的举债度日，没有减少对富豪的税收，税收一直保持在90%的上限，美国不存在崩溃。
在苏联共产党垮台前，美国的贫富差距很小，富豪们的税率最高是91%。挣一百万美元的年薪，上税后剩下十万；跟挣十万年薪的上税后剩六万差不到一倍。富豪们愿意把钱拿出来到国外打仗、在国内济贫维护社会稳定，也有富余的钱帮助穷国搞建设。苏联垮台后，共和党把美国社会拉入贫富差异巨大的极端地步，导致近一半的人口无钱上税。
在里根之前，根本就没有信用卡提前消费，只能靠支票或现金购物，你银行里存多少钱就只能花多少，而且银行账号里不能少于４００美元（我的银行是这个数），个人唯一的债务是房贷，那时的学费很少，学贷数量很低。“
“说起政治体制，如果美国一直是在里根之前的民主制度，当然比一党专制好。但里根以后的美国，跟一党专制没什么差异，政客们都是想方设法给富豪合法避税开绿灯，两党基本上都是既得利益集团的代理人，是剥夺劳动人民的敌人，民主党稍微好一点而已。”
“美国早已失去了从13州南扩、西扩不停的伟大战略家们。在那个年代，收编的墨西哥领地里的墨西哥人，不仅仅贫穷而且黑社会横行。那时的美国政治家们有自信，很快就把收编后的各州变成了跟北方各州一模一样的文明先进法治的州，其中包括加州德州，都是从墨西哥人手中战争夺过来的。现在的墨西哥，人均GDP比中国高。收编后很快就会变成美国北方一样的州，仅凭开发旅游业，就会让那里变成比阿拉斯加还富有。美国没有了当年那样的战略家、政治家，都是些目光短浅只看眼前利益没人为国家着想只为家族利益算计的政客。天天想的不是怎么扩张，而是垒墙。干脆把美国都用9米篱笆圈起来，上面再盖个盖子就齐活了。守财奴都当不好，变成了借钱度日的乞丐国。由世界最大的债权国变成了最大的乞丐债务国。看看当年设计三权分立给百姓持枪权的杰弗逊，干的都是战略家大手笔。可惜二百多年后就成这个样子了。我们可以回忆历史，比如那么不可一世的罗马帝国，烟消云散后只留在了历史书上。
“日本在台湾统治50年里台湾的基础设施建设一般般，台湾的经济腾飞是蒋经国时代，赶上了美国制造业外移毁掉美国的“里根经济学”机遇。中国取代亚洲四小龙成为美国的产品进口国也得感谢里根经济学。世界消费总量就那么大，美国放弃制造业，那一定有趁机靠制造业崛起的。美国的衰败是里根经济学的产物。 “
后记：
Trump当选对美国国运是非常不利的。他的新任期内，会发生债务危机经济危机导致的经济大萧条，中产阶级大规模失业必将带来巨大的社会动乱与破坏。这也是大多数选民的短视以及愚蠢导致的，让一个种族主义者、美国民主制度普世价值的破坏者、 “一个谎话连篇的大忽悠、犯罪分子、蠢货川普”再次当选。盖因：“润涛阎第零定律：在千万年的进化过程中，少数骗子带领多数傻子组成的群体， 战斗力最强。这是自然选择的结果。”
运用智慧耗费心力设计、建立的造福无数后代的三权分立民主制度的开国元勋们如果地下有知，大概会气得棺材板都盖不住了。
索引文章：
| # | 文章 | 文学城链接 | 博客链接 |
| 1 | 再侃中共的江山始于毛泽东可能终于习近平 | 链接1 | 链接2 |
| 2 | 中国共产党不怕出戈尔巴乔夫 | 链接1 | 链接2 |
| 3 | 润涛阎不是什么神算（二） | 链接1 | 链接2 |
| 4 | 二论王岐山的命运 | 链接1 | 链接2 |
| 5 | 谈谈美国的借力打力 | 链接1 | 链接2 |
| 6 | 再论川普与习近平 | 链接1 | 链接2 |
| 7 | 习近平的依法治国 | 链接1 | 链接2 |
| 8 | 简述中共目前的局势 | 链接1 | 链接2 |
| 9 | Kavanaugh的伪证罪 | 链接1 | 链接2 |
| 10 | 美国能肢解中国吗？ | 链接1 | 链接2 |
| 11 | 美国衰败的原因与走向 | 链接1 | 链接2 |
| 12 | （七）美国缺乏的是第二个罗斯福新政 | 链接1 | 链接2 |
| 13 | （六）美国有“影子政府”吗？ | 链接1 | 链接2 |
| 14 | 最高法院与川普建墙堵西裔 | 链接1 | 链接2 |
| 15 | 圣母教堂大火-天灾与人祸 | 链接1 | 链接2 |
| 16 | 债务与中美社会动荡 | 链接2 | |
| 17 | 汶川大地震预示改朝换代还是要胡温的命？ | 原文2008年05月24日发布于万维网 [天下论坛] |
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[Editor’s note:
The U.S. election result will be announced soon. This article predicts the winner of this year’s presidential election based on Yan Runtao’s first law, “life lives in swinging.” and second law: “The rise and fall of the regimes has its own law: how they are gained is how they are lost. “
The quoted contents are Lao Yan’s original words. The unquoted part is the editor’s summary and extension of Lao Yan’s views.
By: Dazhiruoyu33]
Prediction of the Editor: Trump will probably win the presidential election in 2024. The prediction is based on Runtao Yan’s 1st law, “Life lives in swinging.” and 2nd law, “The regime begins and ends for the same reason.” The cycle of decline of the United States began with Reagan and will end with Trump. Similarities between the two:
- Both were once second-rate Hollywood actors;
- Both advocated “robbing the poor to feed the rich,” and both greatly reduced the tax burden on the rich while in office;
- Similarity in name: Ronald vs. Donald;
- Reagan turned California, the largest state in the United States, into a blue state by promoting Silicon Valley and the development of new technologies, and by pardoning undocumented immigrants. Trump may be the second Reagan: by promoting coal mining and de-promoting new technologies, and blocking immigrants, he may turn Texas, the second largest state, into a blue state.
Covid-19 temporarily rewrote history. It not only delayed the onset of the US debt and economic crisis, it also put Biden in power. But the laws of history cannot be broken. The decline of the United States will culminate with Trump’s return to power.
Reasons:
Runtao Yan’s First Law: Life lives in swinging.
Runtao Yan’s Second Law: The rise and fall of the regimes has its own law: how they are gained is how they are lost. The premise of the second law is that foreign invasions or extraterrestrial collisions are not covered by the law.
Runtao Yan’s Ninth Law: Once a social inertia system is formed, it is bound to come to an end.
“History repeats, which includes the regime. Historical repetition is possible, but not immediately; that would lead to an immediate crash.”
“Because of the repeatability of history, we can refer to it when predicting the future by comparing the similarities of historical events. It is important to understand what has happened at different times in the history of the United States, what is happening now that is similar to what has happened in history, future population movements, and other factors.”
“Everyone has his destiny; if he is destined to live until 70, then he won’t die at sixty. If he is destined to die at 80, then he won’t live until 81. It is the same with the regime. When destiny comes, it starts all over again.”
“From a metaphysical point of view, the ancient philosophers’ saying, ‘You will pay for what you have done,’ is exactly what they meant.”
In metaphysics, as the ancient philosophers said, “You will pay for what you do,”
“The cosmos is a phenomenon of life, and Runtao Yan’s first law, “Life lives in swinging,” is compatible not only with all other phenomena of life in the world but also with the universe itself. Society and its elements are living phenomena, thus they must swing from side to side.”
The American way of living and managing society, based on spending on credit, is coming to an end. Nothing should be overdone. The middle way speaks to this. Unfortunately, greed easily drives people to extremes, which leads to reversal once the extreme point is reached. Mao Zedong led China to the far left with the slogan “China is running into communism,” only to be followed by Deng Xiaoping, who started the far right to where we are today, where all the Chinese are crazy about money and nothing else. Mao Zedong pushed people to the edge of abstinence, which is why they are so promiscuous now. Like a pendulum, how far it swings to the left, then how far it must swing to the right. Runtao Yan’s first law discloses that society always makes a U-turn after reaching the end point.
America’s excessive early consumption is coming to an end. The financial crisis is approaching, and when it happens, government bailouts and capital injections will come first, followed by hyperinflation, leading to economic turmoil. By then, the consumerist lifestyle and the way society is run will be consigned to history. The baby boomers will not be spared. This is in accordance with the iron law that “you must pay back what you put out.” “Early consumption” has become the culture of Americans. Americans of all income levels rush to take on more debt. Regardless of how the financial crisis is handled, the end result is the same: either the United States prints more money for itself, resulting in inflation, or it allows China, Japan, and the oil-producing countries of the Middle East to flood the U.S. market with dollars, resulting in inflation. When the inflationary wave subsides, the American habit of excessive early consumption will end.
“Reagan, Trump and other Republicans are against Roosevelt They are the culprits and scum who destroy the United States because they widened the gap between the rich and the poor in the United States, the government was heavily in debt, private planes were getting bigger and bigger, while major cities were full of homeless people, which brought shame to the founding fathers of the United States. During Roosevelt’s New Deal, there was no such situation. Private planes? No way! The rich were taxed at up to 94%.”
“The rise in the Gini coefficient in the United States started with Reaganomics. During the Roosevelt period, billionaires were taxed up to 94%. Reaganomics brought the United States into a dangerous situation of long-term unrest in two ways: on the one hand, the government was deeply in debt and lived from it; second, people didn’t save money; they “pre-consumed” and spent more than they earned. Ultimately, the gap between the rich and the poor became wider and wider. According to government numbers, the Gini coefficient went over 45. This is the number after the billionaires hide their wealth overseas. The real data is unknown. The debt problems in the United States and Europe are ultimately caused by the habit of the vast majority of people to live on debt. This habit is difficult to change because the self-control of the group has declined from generation to generation. “
“The transformation of the United States from the largest creditor to the largest debtor has been a slow process, institutionally speaking, starting with Reaganomics with cutting tax rate of the billionaires and promoting the public to spend on debt. However, the fall of the Twin Towers, which induced George W. Bush Jr. to find a reason to start the eight-year war in Iraq and Afghanistan on a large scale while cutting tax for the billionaires, was the symbolic event that turned the United States into a highly indebted country and put it into a recessionary path.”
“Before Reaganomics, the CEO of America’s top large corporations earned 80 times the average income of the company’s employees. The riches were taxed at 70%. Now the CEOs of the top large corporations make more than 340 times the average income of their employees. Moreover, the CEO has the capacity to engage in tax avoidance through legally sanctioned strategies to reduce their income tax burden, a privilege not afforded to employees.
The implementation of tax avoidance legislation benefiting the rich commenced during the Reagan administration. Trump adopted Reagan’s policies and further cut the tax rate for the rich. Even worse, Trump nullified numerous executive orders implemented by the Obama administration to regulate financial institutions.
The Republican Party under Reagan was shortsighted and served the vested interest groups that put the United States on a path of increasing national debt and cutting tax rates for the rich. The United States is so burdened by the national debt that it may soon struggle to pay even the interest on borrowed money. Had Reagan refrained from endorsing a culture of credit-driven consumption and maintained the 90% tax rate on the rich, the United States would likely have avoided accumulating debt to the point of self-destruction.
Before the collapse of the Soviet Communist Party, the disparity between the rich and the poor in the United States was rather narrow, and the highest tax rate for the rich was 91%. For example, if one made a million dollars a year, after taxes one would only have $100,000 left over, whereas those made $100,000 would retain $60,000. The rich were willing to pay taxes to support the US wars abroad, assist the local underprivileged to preserve social order, and assist underdeveloped nations with infrastructure. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the Republican Party pushed American society to the edge, where there were huge gaps between the rich and the poor. As a result, almost half of the population made less than the taxable income level.
Big credit card purchases didn’t exist before Reagan. One could only purchase with cash or checks. The checking account required a minimum balance of $400, and the only personal debt was the mortgage. Student loan debt was low because tuition was cheap.
“The US would be better off with a pre-Reagan democracy. Since Reagan, the US was a de facto one-party autocracy. Politicians are doing everything they can to let the rich legally avoid taxes. Both parties enrich the wealthy and impoverish the working class. Democrats are slightly better.
“Now, the US lacks excellent expansion strategists. Before being acquired from Mexico, the states, including California and Texas, were poor and full of gangs. The American politicians at that time were confident and quickly turned the incorporated those states into civilized, advanced, and law-abiding states that were the same as the northern states. Mexico has a higher GDP per capita than China. Mexico would soon become like the northern states of the USA if the USA took it over now. Tourism alone will make it richer than Alaska. The US lacks its former strategists. Politicians prioritize short-term gains. No one cares about the nation, only their families. Politicians are thinking of walls instead of expansion. Why don’t they fence the USA with the 9-meter walls and seal it? Politicians have made the USA the biggest debtor nation, dependent on foreign loans. Think of Thomas Jefferson, who established a political system of checks and balances and granted US citizens the right to bear and keep arms. That’s the strategist. Unfortunately, after 200 years, the USA has changed. That reminded us of the Roman Empire that fell and goes into history.”
“During the 50 years of Japanese rule in Taiwan, Taiwan’s infrastructure construction was mediocre. Taiwan’s economy boomed at the Chiang Ching-kuo era by catching up with the opportunity from “Reaganomics” that outsourced US manufacturing. Later, Reaganomics made China the US’s largest exporter, replacing the four Asian tigers. Reaganomics ruined US manufacturing. It also caused US decline. “
Editor’s note:
Trump’s reelection is very bad for the United States. In his new term, the debt and economic crises will burst, resulting in a widespread economic collapse, and large scale middle-class unemployment will cause massive social unrest and destruction. This is caused by the short-sightedness and stupidity of most people to vote for Trump, a racist, destructor of US democracy and universal value, and ‘a big liar, criminal, and idiot.’ Because according to “Runtao Yan’s zeroth law: In millions of years of evolution, a group of fools led by a few liars has the strongest fighting ability. This is the result of natural selection.”
The founding fathers, who devoted their wisdom and efforts to design and establish the democratic system of checks and balances that benefited generations, would be outraged to overturn their coffin lids if they knew it.
* The article was written a while ago. I released it today after the election ended since Runtao Yan previously stated that he did not want his forecast to influence readers’ voting decisions. I respect his ideas.
